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Gregory Albery, also from Georgetown, said: "This mechanism adds yet another layer to how climate change will threaten human and animal health. Prof Carlson said: "At least 15,000 new cross-species viral sharing events are projected by 2070 as a result of climate change-driven reorganization of mammal distribution, under a 2 ☌ warming scenario."Īs viruses start to jump between host species at unprecedented rates, the authors say that the impacts on conservation and human health could be stunning.Ĭo-lead author Dr. The researchers predict that climate change will become the biggest risk factor for new pandemic emergence. Novel encounters are expected to occur everywhere in the world - but will be concentrated in areas of high human population density in tropical Africa and Southeast Asia. They used a model of viral sharing patterns to forecast cross-species transmission in a subset of 3,139 animals. The team looked at how the geographical ranges of 3,870 mammal species might change in response to different climate scenarios by 2070. "It's a really stunning example of just how well we can, actually, predict the future if we try." We've spent years double-checking those results, with different data and different assumptions, but the models always lead us to these conclusions. Prof Carlson said: "At every step, our simulations have taken us by surprise. Africa is most vulnerable along with Asia - a global hotspot of bat diversity.
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Their ability to fly will allow them to travel long distances - and share the most viruses. Worryingly, the study found rising temperatures will have the most impact on bats - which account for most spillovers of disease.
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The process could already be underway in today’s 1.2 degrees warmer world - and efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions may not stop these events from unfolding. "But markets aren't special anymore in a changing climate, that kind of process will be the reality in nature just about everywhere."Īnimal habitats will move disproportionately in the same places as human settlements - creating new hotspots of spillover risk. "We worry about markets because bringing unhealthy animals together in unnatural combinations creates opportunities for this stepwise process of emergence - like how SARS jumped from bats to civets, then civets to people. Lead author Professor Colin Carlson, of Georgetown University in Washington DC, said: "The closest analogy is actually the risks we see in the wildlife trade. Climate change forces creatures from their natural habitat, into closer proximity to humans, leading to explosions of zoonotic disease. They will emerge in new types of animals - leading to viruses jumping across a 'stepping stone' species into humans.Ī similar phenomenon is believed to be behind COVID-19 - which originated in bats. These shifts will bring greater opportunities for viruses like Ebola or coronaviruses to emerge in new regions - making them harder to track. It focused on geographic range shifts - journeys undertaken to relocate into areas likely to have large human populations.Īs they encounter other mammals for the first time, the study projects they will share thousands of viruses. The finding is based on the first comprehensive assessment of how global warming will restructure the mammalian virome - viruses that infect host cells. They predict that at least 15,000 new cross-species viral transmissions will occur - within the next 50 years. Loss of habitat forces animals to migrate and potentially come into contact with other species, leading to an increase in the number of germs spreading to humans. The research came from scientists at Georgetown University in Washington DC. This ecological shift will increase the risk of ' zoonotic spillover' - viruses that are transmitted to people, new research revealed. Climate change could spark the next pandemic by pushing different types of wildlife closer to where humans live, according to new research from DC.